In December 2024, NASA discovered a new asteroid with the propensity to cause catastrophic damage. Dubbed the 2024 YR4, it appeared to have the potential of being a city-destroying asteroid. NASA feared the giant space object could hit Earth when it passes in December 2032. While the chance of it hitting Earth is slim, it’s still pretty scary. NASA recently changed its stance on the 2024 YR4, and it seems we are in much better shape than once predicted.
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The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has dropped to 0.004%. It's expected to safely pass Earth in 2032.
— NASA (@NASA) February 24, 2025
Read the full update: https://t.co/wirnWv6FYE pic.twitter.com/AKXma5eVoT
It’s Unlikely We’ll See Any City Destroying By The 2024 YR4 Asteroid
A news release from NASA states what they once feared to be a city-destroying asteroid is no longer as concerning.
“NASA has significantly lowered the risk of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 as an impact threat to Earth for the foreseeable future. When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting our planet in 2032. As observations of the asteroid continued to be submitted to the Minor Planet Center, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL’s) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory and now have updated its impact probability on Dec. 22, 2032, to only 0.004% and found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century. The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on Dec. 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth,” the release explained.
Someone asked NASA on X how they can determine whether or not we will see a city-destroying asteroid or not. “How do you determine the probability so precisely? No doubting, just genuinely curious about the process.”
NASA replied, “We track asteroids using telescopes worldwide and refine their orbits with precise measurements. We then model their future paths using computer simulations to account for things like gravitational influences. Through these simulations, we’re able to calculate impact probabilities with extreme precision.”
This story’s featured image can be found here.
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